Joao Paulo A. de Souza

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics · 2024

Modernization and Underemployment in a Dual Agrarian Sector: The Case of Brazil (1950–1980)

Studies the transformation of agricultural employment during Brazil's modernization between 1950 and 1980 using primary census data and new measures of rural population. The paper documents the persistence of rural underemployment despite rapid industrialization and discusses how agricultural development policies shaped the incentives for labor-saving technical change.

Metroeconomica · 2017

Biased Technical Change in Agriculture and Industrial Growth

Develops a two-sector growth model to examine how the factor-saving bias of agricultural technical change influences industrialization. The paper shows that land-saving innovations can accelerate industrial growth by expanding rural employment and domestic demand for manufactures, whereas labor-saving innovations may have the opposite effect.

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics · 2015

Evidence of Growth Complementarity between Agriculture and Industry in Developing Countries

Examines whether growth in agriculture stimulates manufacturing growth in developing countries using dynamic panel methods and climate-based instrumental variables that mimic the effect of yield-increasing innovations. The paper finds that agricultural growth has sizable positive effects on manufacturing by easing aggregate demand, saving, foreign exchange, and fiscal constraints on industrialization.

International Review of Applied Economics · 2017

Real Wages and Labor-Saving Technical Change: Evidence from a Panel of Manufacturing Industries in Mature and Labor-Surplus Economies

Examines whether higher labor costs induce firms to adopt labor-saving technologies using panel data for manufacturing industries in developed and developing countries. The results support the role of directed technical change in shaping the long-run evolution of labor productivity and income distribution.

Metroeconomica · 2021

Industrialization and Skill Acquisition in an Evolutionary Model of Coordination Failures

With Leopoldo Gomez-Ramirez

Develops an evolutionary model of industrialization in which firms' technology adoption and workers' skill acquisition reinforce one another. The paper shows that industrial policy, education policy, and employment creation are complementary in overcoming coordination failures and supporting economic development.

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics · 2018

The Paradox of Mexico's Export Boom without Growth: A Demand-Side Explanation

With Leopoldo Gomez-Ramirez

Examines why Mexico's rapid export growth following trade liberalization failed to generate sustained economic growth. Combining input–output analysis with a demand-led growth model, the paper argues that input outsourcing weakened domestic industrial linkages and reduced demand for domestic manufacturing.

Industrial and Corporate Change · 2025

Stable Profit Rates in a Time of Rising Market Power: The Role of Financial and Intangible Assets in the U.S. Corporate Sector

With Leila Davis

Examines why aggregate profit margins have risen sharply among U.S. listed nonfinancial firms since 1980 while the aggregate profit rate has remained stable. The paper shows that growing holdings of financial and, especially, externally acquired intangible assets reconcile these trends and are associated with competitive strategies that consolidate market power while inflating asset values.

In Growth, Distribution and Effective Demand: Classical and Post-Keynesian Perspectives (Routledge, forthcoming)

Stylized Facts on the Evolution of Profit Rates in the U.S.: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

With Leila Davis

Documents the evolution of profit rates across U.S. listed corporations since 1970 using firm-level data. The chapter shows that widening profitability dispersion reflects different mechanisms at the top and bottom of the distribution, and highlights the importance of accounting for financial and intangible assets when measuring corporate profitability.

Journal of Evolutionary Economics · 2023

Listing, Delisting, and Financial Norms: A Quantile Decomposition of Firm Balance Sheets

With Leila Davis and Gonzalo Hernandez

Studies how changes in the composition of listed firms shaped the evolution of corporate balance sheets in the United States after 1980. The paper shows that waves of firm listing and delisting spread new financial norms regarding cash holdings and leverage, particularly among financially fragile firms.

Metroeconomica · 2022

Churning and Profitability in the U.S. Corporate Sector

With Leila Davis

Examines how firm entry and exit shape the distribution of profitability among U.S. listed corporations since 1970. The paper shows that the exit of unprofitable firms plays a central role in stabilizing the top half of the profitability distribution.

Economic Modelling · 2023

What Are Firms Borrowing For? The Role of Financial Assets

With Leila Davis, Y.K. Kim, and Giacomo Rella

Examines why rising nonfinancial corporate borrowing has had only weak effects on aggregate demand in advanced economies since 1990. Using flow-of-funds data for fifteen countries, the paper shows that new borrowing primarily finances the accumulation of financial assets rather than fixed capital investment.

Cambridge Journal of Economics · 2019

An Empirical Analysis of Minsky Regimes in the U.S. Economy

With Leila Davis and Gonzalo Hernandez

Develops an empirical classification of firms into Minsky's hedge, speculative, and Ponzi financing regimes using firm-level data for publicly traded U.S. corporations. The paper studies the evolution of financial fragility since 1970, with particular attention to the distinction between long-run structural change and business-cycle dynamics.